history
This book doesn't include history. For a similar set of notes summarizing 'stuff about history that you might like to know', please see [1].
summarize
http://www.waitbutwhy.com/2013/08/putting-time-in-perspective.html
and
http://www.hyperhistory.com/online_n2/History_n2/a.html
and a history of ideas
futurology
demographics
economics
sigmoids
tech: things take longer than you think, but other things you didn't think of pop up (find that quote)
what else? i dont know much futurology
todo
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Structuralism_%28philosophy_of_science%29
the ubiquity of power laws
99% of web pages are junk but that's okay b/c you can choose which ones to look at
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Threshold_knowledge
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/A_Guide_for_the_Perplexed#Critique_of_materialistic_scientism
" The sort of mental processes described as cognitive are largely influenced by research which has successfully used this paradigm in the past, likely starting with Thomas Aquinas, who divided the study of behavior into two broad categories: cognitive (how we know the world), and affective (how we understand the world via feelings and emotions)[disputed – discuss].[citation needed] Consequently, this description tends to apply to processes such as memory, association, concept formation, pattern recognition, language, attention, perception, action, problem solving and mental imagery.[14][15] Traditionally, emotion was not thought of as a cognitive process. This division is now regarded as largely artificial, and much research is currently being undertaken to examine the cognitive psychology of emotion; research also includes one's awareness of one's own strategies and methods of cognition called metacognition and includes metamemory. " -- https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cognition
topics:
intro to calculus (no integration methods i.e. partial integration)
div, grad, curl with "intuitive" pictorial pseudo-proofs
a condensation of some physics mechanics: start from noether's law EM: derive maxwell's eqs from experimental laws relativity: use the triangle derivation
LTI systems (convolution etc)
linear algebra (from a modern algebra pov)
some algebraic logic
formal logic, godel
backprop
finding maxima and minima with derivatives
mean, variance, estimators, bias, variance of estimators
Taylor series
NP-completeness
the artifice of real numbers (instead of integers), and continuity the artifice of imaginary numbers, and euler's EQ
category theory (once i learn it)
set theory, infinite ordinals and cardinals, surreal numbers
game theory
(diff
algebraic) (geometry | topology) |
?: other VP-ish stuff? e.g. chu spaces?
scaling laws
wave equations
helmholtz's theorem
modern algebra
some analysis
compound interest, some diff eqs
entropy, information, mutual information, KL divergence
pictures of even simple things like linearity, distributivity, monotonicity, etc
https://medium.com/@yegg/mental-models-i-find-repeatedly-useful-936f1cc405d#.2ilhcl20n
the link has his one-sentence defn of each of these but i thought it would probably be better to come back and write my own defn and then compare to his, so i deleted them
" Notes
Most of the mental models on this list are here because they are useful outside of their specific discipline. For example, use of the mental model “peak oil” isn’t restricted to an energy context. Most references to “peak x” are an invocation of this model. Similarly, inflation as a concept applies outside of economics, e.g. grade inflation and expectations inflation.
I roughly grouped the mental models by discipline, but as noted, this grouping is not to be taken as an assertion that they only apply within that dicipline. The best ideas often arise when going cross-dicipline.
The numbers next to each mental model reflect the frequency with which they come up:
(1) — Frequently (61 models)
(2) — Occasionally (41 models)
(3) — Rarely, though still repeatedly (84 models)
If studying new models, I’d start with the lower numbers first. The quotes next to each concept are meant to be a basic definition to remind you what it is, and not a teaching tool. Follow the link to learn more.
I am not endorsing any of these concepts as normatively good; I’m just saying they have repeatedly helped me explain and navigate the world.
I wish I had learned many of these years earlier. In fact, the proximate cause for posting this was so I could more effectively answer the question I frequently get from people I work with: “what should I learn next?” If you’re trying to be generally effective, my best advice is to start with the the things on this list.
Explaining
- (1) Hanlon’s Razor
- (1) Occam’s Razor
- (1) Cognitive Biases
- (1) Arguing from First Principle
- (1) Proximate vs Root Cause
Modeling
- (1) Systems Thinking . Related: causal loop diagrams
- (1) Scenario Analysis
- (1) Power-law . related: Pareto distribution; Pareto principle
- (1) Normal Distribution . related: central limit theorem
- (1) Sensitivity Analysis
- (2) Cost-benefit Analysis . related: net present value
- (3) Heavy-tailed Distribution . related: fat-tailed distribution; long tail ; black swan
- (3) Simulation
- (3) Pareto Efficiency
Brainstorming
- (1) Lateral Thinking
- (1) Divergent Thinking vs Convergent Thinking
- (2) Critical Mass
- (2) Activation Energy
- (2) Catalyst
- (2) Leverage
- (2) Crowdsourcing . related: wisdom of the crowd
- (3) The Structure of Scientific Revolutions . related: Planck’s principle
Experimenting
- (1) Scientific Method
- (1) Proxy
- (1) Selection Bias . related: sampling bias
- (1) Response Bias
- (2) Observer Effect . related: Schrödinger’s cat
- (2) Survivorship Bias
- (3) Heisenberg Uncertainty Principle
Interpreting
- (1) Order of Magnitude . related: order of approximation, back-of-the-envelope calculation, dimensional analysis
- (1) Major vs Minor Factors. related: order of approximation, back-of-the-envelope calculation, dimensional analysis
- (1) False Positives and False Negatives
- (1) Confidence Interval . related: error bar
- (2) Bayes’ Theorem
- (2) Regression to the Mean
- (2) Inflection Point
- (3) Simpson’s Paradox
Deciding
- (1) Business Case . related: why this now?
- (1) Opportunity Cost . related: cost of capital
- (1) Intuition. related: thinking fast vs thinking slow
- (1) Local vs Global Optimum
- (1) Decision Trees
- (1) Sunk Cost . related: “throwing good money after bad”
- (1) Availability Bias
- (1) Confirmation Bias
- (3) Loss Aversion
Reasoning
- (1) Anecdotal
- (1) False Cause . related: correlation does not imply causation
- (1) Straw Man
- (1) Plausible — Thinking? that just because something is plausible means that it is true.
- (1) Likely — Thinking? that just because something is possible means that it is likely.
- (1) Appeal to Emotion
- (1) Ad Hominem
- (1) Slippery Slope
- (1) Black or White
- (1) Bandwagon
For a longer list, see Thou shall not commit logical fallacies (I have this poster on my office door.)
Negotiating
- (1) The Third Story
- (1) Active Listening
- (1) Trade-offs
- (1) Incentives
- (2) Best Alternative to a Negotiated Agreement (BATNA)
- (2) Zero-sum vs Non-zero-sum . related: win-win — “A win–win strategy is a conflict resolution process that aims to accommodate all disputants.”
- (3) Alternative Dispute Resolution (ADR) . related: mediation, arbitration
- (3) Prisoner’s Dilemma
Mitigating
- (2) Preserving Optionality . tyranny of small decisions , boiling frog
- (2) Precautionary Principle
- (2) Short-termism
- (2) Unintended Consequences . related: collateral damage
- (3) Streisand Effect . related: cobra effect
Managing
- 1) Weekly 1–1s
- (1) Forcing Function
- (1) Pygmalion Effect . related: market pull technology policy
- (1) Distributed Team
- (2) Introversion vs Extraversion
- (2) IQ vs EQ
- (2) Growth Mindset vs Fixed Mindset
- (2) Hindsight Bias . related: Pollyanna principle
- (2) Organizational Debt
- (2) Generalist vs Specialist . related: hedgehog vs fox
- (2) Consequence vs Conviction
- (3) High-context vs Low-context Culture
- (3) Peter Principle
- (3) Maslow’s Hierarchy of Needs
- (3) Loyalists vs Mercenaries
- (3) Dunbar’s Number
- (3) Zero Tolerance
- (3) Commandos vs Infantry vs Police
Developing
- (1) Technical Debt
- (1) Binary Search . related: debugging
- (1) Divide and Conquer
- (1) Design Pattern . related: anti-pattern , dark pattern
- (3) Zawinski’s Law
- (3) Moore’s Law
- (3) Metcalfe’s Law
- (3) Clarke’s Third Law
Business
- (1) Minimum Viable Product . related: perfect is the enemy of good
- (2) Capital Allocation Options
- (3) Luck Surface Area
- (3) Hunting Elephants vs Flies . related: brontosaurus, whale, and microbe
- (3) Secrets
- (3) Strategic Acquisition vs Financial Acquisition vs Aquihire . related: rollup — “a technique used by investors (commonly private equity firms) where multiple small companies in the same market are acquired and merged.”, P/E-driven acquisitions
Influencing
- (1) Framing . related: anchoring
- (2) Cialdini’s Six Principles of Influence — Reciprocity? (“People tend to return a favor.”), Commitment (“If people commit…they are more likely to honor that commitment.”), Social Proof (“People will do things they see other people are doing.”), Authority (“People will tend to obey authority figures.”), Liking (“People are easily persuaded by other people they like.”), and Scarcity (“Perceived scarcity will generate demand”). (related: foot-in-the-door technique)
- (3) Paradox of Choice . related: Hick’s Law, “increasing the number of choices will increase the decision time logarithmically.”
- (3) Major vs Minor Chords
- (3) Coda (related: CTA, "Call to action")
Marketing
- (1) Bullseye Framework
- (1) Technology Adoption Lifecycle . related: S-curve, Crossing the Chasm, Installation Period vs Deployment Period
- (3) Jobs To Be Done
- (3) Fear, Uncertainty, and Doubt (FUD)
Competing
- (2) Supply and Demand . related: perfect competition
- (2) Winner Take All Market. related: lock-in, monopoly, monopsony
- (2) Two-sided Market
- (3) Barriers to Entry
- (3) Price Elasticity . related: Giffen good — “a product that people consume more of as the price rises and vice versa.”
- (3) Market Power
- (3) Conspicuous Consumption . related: Veblen goods — “types of luxury goods, such as expensive wines, jewelry, fashion-designer handbags, and luxury cars, which are in demand because of the high prices asked for them.”
- (3) Comparative Advantage
- (3) Creative Destruction
Strategizing
- (1) Sustainable Competitive Advantage
- (1) Core Competency . related: circle of competence — “you don’t have to be an expert on every company, or even many. You only have to be able to evaluate companies within your circle of competence. The size of that circle is not very important; knowing its boundaries, however, is vital.”
- (1) Strategy vs Tactics
- (1) Sphere of Influence
- (2) Unknown Unknowns
- (2) Switching Costs
- (3) Network Effect
- (3) Economies of Scale
Military
- (3) Two-front War
- (3) Flypaper Theory . related: honeypot
- (3) Fighting the Last War — Using strategies and tactics that worked successfully in the past, but are no longer as useful.
- (3) Rumsfeld’s Rule . related: Joy’s law
- (3) Trojan Horse
- (3) Empty Fort Strategy . Related: vaporware
- (3) Exit Strategy
- (3) Boots on the Ground
- (3) Winning Hearts and Minds
- (3) Mutually Assured Destruction. related: Mexican standoff, Zugzwang
- (3) Containment
- (3) Winning a Battle but Losing the War
- (3) Beachhead
- (3) Proxy War
Market Failure
- (2) Social vs Market Norms
- (3) Information Asymmetry . related: adverse selection ; moral hazard
- (3) Externalities . related: tragedy of the commons ; free rider problem; coase theorem
- (3) Deadweight Loss
Political Failure
- (2) Chilling Effect
- (3) Regulatory Capture . related: Shirky principle — “Institutions will try to preserve the problem to which they are the solution
- (3) Duverger’s Law . "plurality-rule elections (such as first past the post) structured within single-member districts tend to favor a two-party system, and that ‘the double ballot majority system and proportional representation tend to favor multipartism"
- (3) Arrow’s Impossibility Theorem
Investing
- (2) Fear of Missing Out (FOMO)
- (2) Preferred Stock vs Common Stock
- (3) Margin of Safety
- (3) Investing vs Speculation . "“Typically, high-risk trades that are almost akin to gambling fall under the umbrella of speculation, whereas lower-risk investments based on fundamentals and analysis fall into the category of investing.”"
- (3) Compound Interest
- (3) Inflation . related: real vs nominal value
- (3) Gross Domestic Product (GDP)
- (3) Efficient-Market Hypothesis
- (3) Purchasing Power Parity
- (3) Insider Trading
- (3) Poison Pill . “A type of defensive tactic used by a corporation’s board of directors against a takeover. Typically, such a plan gives shareholders the right to buy more shares at a discount if one shareholder buys a certain percentage or more of the company’s shares.”. related: proxy fight
Learning
- (1) Deliberate Practice
- (3) Imposter Syndrome
- (3) Dunning-Kruger Effect
- (3) Spacing Effect
Productivity
- (1) Focus on High-leverage Activities . related: Eisenhower decision matrix — “what is important is seldom urgent, and what is urgent is seldom important.”, “The best time to plant a tree was 20 years ago. The second best time is now.”
- (1) Makers vs Manager’s Schedule . related: Deep Work
- (2) Murphy’s Law . related: Hofstadter’s Law, “It always takes longer than you expect, even when you take into account Hofstadter’s Law
- (3) Parkinson’s Law
- (3) Gate’s Law . "Most people overestimate what they can do in one year and underestimate what they can do in ten years"
Nature
- (3) Chain Reaction . related: cascading failure, domino effect
- (3) Natural Selection
- (3) Butterfly Effect
- (3) Sustainability
- (3) Peak Oil
Philosophy
- (2) Consequentialism
- (2) Distributive Justice vs Procedural Justice . Procedural justice concerns the fairness and the transparency of the processes by which decisions are made, and may be contrasted with distributive justice (fairness in the distribution of rights or resources), and retributive justice (fairness in the punishment of wrongs).”
- (3) Effective Altruism
- (3) Utilitarianism
- (3) Agnosticism
- (3) Veil of Ignorance
Internet
- (2) Filter Bubble
- (2) Botnet
- (2) Spamming . related: phishing , clickjacking, social engineering
- (3) Content Farm . related: click farm
- (3) Micropayment
- (3) Godwin’s Law "
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joy%27s_law_(management)
some others from the HN discussion:
"
- Dimensionality Reducing Transforms
- Hysteresis, Feedback
- Transform, Op, Transform
- Orthogonalization for things that are actually dependent
- Ratios, remove units, make things dimensionless
A big one, that helps me immensely, is that when I need to do a big/risky/complex task, is to imagine myself doing with with sped up time. Instantly creates an outline and list of tools that one will need. "
"
- Overconfidence bias: we usually think we're better than the average on something we know how to do (driving) and worse than the average in something we don't (juggling), even if almost nobody knows juggling and everyone knows how to drive
- No alpha (aka can't beat the market): you can only consistently beat the market if you're far better at financial analysis than a lot of people who do it every day all day. So don't bother trying.
- Value chain vs. profits: you'll find that most of the excess profits in the value chain of a product will be concentrated in the link that has the least competition
- Non-linearity of utility functions: the utility of item n of something is smaller than item n-1. Also, the utility of losing $1 is smaller than (1/1000) utility of losing 1000. This explains insurance and lotteries: using linear utility function, both have a negative payout, but they make sense when the utility function isn't linear
- Bullwhip effect in supply chain: a small variation in one link of the supply chain can cause massive impacts further up or down as those responsible for each link overreact to the variation (also explains a lot of traffic jams)
- Little's law: in supply chain (and a lot of other fields): number of units in a system = arrival rate * time in the system "
Lordarminius 1 hour ago
I would add to the list 'revealed preference'
'... an economic theory of consumption behavior which asserts that the best way to measure consumer preferences is to observe their purchasing behavior. Revealed preference theory works on the assumption that consumers have considered a set of alternatives before making a purchasing decision. Thus, given that a consumer chooses one option out of the set, this option must be the preferred option' http://www.investopedia.com/terms/r/revealed-preference.asp
In other words "observe their actions, not their words"
source99 14 hours ago
A technique I often use to test a theory is to change the inputs to be the maximum and minimum possible values and see if the model still holds true. I've found it to be incredibly useful in a few specific situations.
reply
taneq 14 hours ago
Or more generally, look for critical points in the model and see if it still holds. Max/min values (or odd combinations of max/min for different variables) are good candidates, as are zeroes, and anything which makes part of an equation go to zero.
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" Knight (1921) introduced an important distinction between risk and uncertainty. Risk is when there are multiple possible future states and the probabilities of those different future states occurring are known. Risk is well described by the laws of probability and statistics. Knightian uncertainty occurs when the probabilities of future states, or even the nature of possible future states is not known. " [2]
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https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Triple_modular_redundancy
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https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wikipedia:Vital_articles
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